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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: TRADERS NOW LEAN TOWARDS A BEARISH MARKET FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008 SARASOTA, FL, June 18, 2008 – MoneyShow.com, the largest multimedia investment education destination for investors, traders, and financial advisors officially announced the results of the Investors Sentiment Indicator yesterday at The Money Show Las Vegas. Despite a majority of Americans believing we are in a recession, the survey revealed that 56% of investors are leaning toward a bullish sentiment for the S&P 500 for the remainder of 2008. Most bullish investors seem somewhat confident about the markets with 43% indicating that the S&P 500 will rise less than 10% for the remainder of the year, and 13% stating that the S&P would rise 10% or more. Perhaps the biggest change since the last sentiment indicator is how traders view the Federal Reserve and interest rates. An overwhelming percentage of traders now feel that the Fed will not change rates (43%) or will raise rates once or twice (42%). Last February, 85% of traders felt the Fed would lower rates once, twice, or even several times. "It's interesting that these daytraders even have an opinion either way concerning interest rates. In the past, most traders would say they only concern themselves with charts. Today, traders are more sensitive than ever to macro-economic events and clearly, they see a benefit to following Fed moves in addition to their technical analysis. Pairing chart reading and fundamental analysis in order to find trading opportunities is increasingly popular," said MoneyShow.com market commentator Tim Bourquin, who is also the co-founder of leading conferences for traders including The Traders Expo and Forex Trading Expo. The number of traders shorting the market has changed very little from sentiment indicators over the past year with 18% stating they won’t be making any short sales to make profits and 61% claiming that up to half their trades would be on the short side of the markets for the remainder of the year. Options continue to be the most profitable trade at 27% followed by stocks at 22%. Commodities and foreign currency trailed behind at 18% and 15%, respectively. When asked about how they felt the U.S. dollar value would act in relation to other currencies, 46% of traders foresee a moderate to significant rise. This compared to just 3% last February represents the biggest turnaround in traders’ sentiment. “This change in trader sentiment indicates that many traders feel the bottom is in for the US dollar. This makes sense when one views the change in trader sentiment for interest rates. It also indicates that trading currencies is becoming a more important tool for traders looking to trade markets outside of traditional equities,” said Bourquin. Inflation and the prices of gold and oil are making headlines almost on a daily basis, and questions have been recently added to the sentiment indicator to reflect traders’ views. An overwhelming 87% of them feel that inflation will rise modestly to significantly into 2009. When asked about gold and oil prices at the end of 2008, 33% of traders expect gold to rise between $1,100 and $1,200 an ounce and 54% anticipate oil to rise between $150 and $175 per barrel. The MoneyShow.com Traders Sentiment Indicator polled active traders from its member list between June 9 and June 16, 2008. The results will be announced and discussed today at the Exhibit Hall Grand Opening at The Traders Expo in Los Angeles and made available on the home page of MoneyShow.com. The site also commissions several other indicators throughout the year among high-net-worth individual investors, active traders, and investment experts, which will be announced in conjunction with InterShow’s various trade shows and made available on MoneyShow.com. About MoneyShow.com About InterShow |
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